The reliability of forecasts in transportation

Abstract

Major problems of forecasting the economic characteristics of transportation (i.e. the amount of freight and passengers carried, the turnover rate of freight and passengers, etc. in transportation as a whole and in particular areas using various transport facilities) are demonstrated. Methods for predicting the development of transportation based on multidimensional regression and correlation analysis and realizing mathematical models for choosing linear and nonlinear regression equations, more accurately approximating the empirical data, are presented. The research conducted has demonstrated that the most reliable forecasts may be made when the methods of choosing the proper non-linear regression equation described in Section 2 of the present paper are used.

First Published Online: 19 Dec 2011

Keyword : reliability, forecasting, multidimensional regression, correlative analysis, mathematical models, approximation, empirical data, correlative relationship, linear correlation coefficient