Import dependence of the European organic market and the role of Ukrainian exports
Abstract
The European market for organic products has been expanding, with a persistent difference between the growth rates of organic retail trade (actual demand for organic products) and the growth rates of organic agricultural land areas (potential supply of organic products). This makes the European Union (EU) dependent on global imports. This research focuses on the import of organic products from Ukraine. To understand the underlying factors of the EU-27 countries’ import dependence on Ukrainian exports, this article proposes the following: 1) an analysis of Ukraine’s contribution to the total import volume to EU-27 countries by categories of organic products that have the most significant share in overall imports from Ukraine (these categories include: cereals, other than wheat and rice; soybeans; wheat; oilseeds, other than soybeans); 2) a study of the general trends of the European organic market’s import dependence on imports from Ukraine by the categories with the highest contribution; 3) clustering of the EU-27 countries based on organic market indicators; 4) an analysis of the European organic market using Ukrainian imports as an example. Ukrainian imports do not threaten the domestic European market; instead, countries with the highest level of dependence can use Ukrainian organic raw materials for processing and further re-export.
Keyword : import dependence coefficient, EU-27 countries, organic products, foreign trade
How to Cite
Nifatova, O., Danko, Y., Petrychuk, S., Baležentis, T., & Štreimikienė, D. (2024). Import dependence of the European organic market and the role of Ukrainian exports. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 30(6), 1950–1971. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2024.22840
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
Andrusenko, N., Martynova, L., Sharko, V., Garbazhii, K., Hyrych, S., & Vasylyshyna, O. (2022). Changes in the organic products market as a result of the 2022 events in Eastern Europe. WSEAS Transactions on Environment and Development, 18, 918–929. https://doi.org/10.37394/232015.2022.18.87
Badgley, C., Moghtader, J., Quintero, E., Zakem, E., Chappell, M. J., Aviles-Vazquez, K., Samulon, A., & Perfecto, I. (2007). Organic agriculture and the global food supply. Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems, 22(2), 86–108. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1742170507001640
Bernstein, H. (2010). Introduction: Some questions concerning the productive forces. Journal of Agrarian Change, 10(3), 300–314. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1471-0366.2010.00272.x
Boix-Fayos, C., & De Vente, J. (2023). Challenges and potential pathways towards sustainable agriculture within the European Green Deal. Agricultural Systems, 207, Article 103634. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2023.103634
Braun, E., Braun, E., Gyimesi, A., Iloskics, Z., & Sebestyén, T. (2023). Exposure to trade disruptions in case of the Russia–Ukraine conflict: A product network approach. The World Economy, 46(10), 2950–2982. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13417
Calabro, G., & Vieri, S. (2023). Limits and potential of organic farming towards a more sustainable European agri-food system. British Food Journal, 126(1), 223–236. https://doi.org/10.1108/BFJ-12-2022-1067
Chander, M., Subrahmanyeswari, B., Mukherjee, R., & Kumar, S. (2011). Organic livestock production: An emerging opportunity with new challenges for producers in tropical countries. Scientific and Technical Review, 30(3), 569–583. https://doi.org/10.20506/rst.30.3.2092
Connor, D. J. (2008). Organic agriculture cannot feed the world. Field Crops Research, 106(2), 187–190. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2007.11.010
Dankevych, V., Dankevych, Y., & Pyvovar, P. (2018). Сlustering of the international agricultural trade between Ukraine and the EU. Management Theory and Studies for Rural Business and Infrastructure Development, 40(3), 307–319.
de Gourcuff, J. C., Makowski, D., Ciais, P., & Barthelemy, M. (2023). Impact of the Ukrainian crisis on the global food security. arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2301.09968
European Commission. (2021). Ensuring global food supply and food security. https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/common-agricultural-policy/agri-food-supply-chain/ensuring-global-food-supply-and-food-security_en
European Commission. (2022a). Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets amidst global food security concerns. https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/news/european-commission-publishes-its-latest-short-term-outlook-eu-agricultural-markets-amidst-global-2022-07-07_en
European Commission. (2022b). EU imports of organic agri-food products: Key developments in 2021 (Agricultural Market Brief No 19). Agriculture and Rural Development. https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2022-09/agri-market-brief-19-organic-imports_en.pdf
European Commission. (2023). Organic farming in the EU: A decade of organic growth (Agricultural Market Brief No 20). Agriculture and Rural Development. https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/document/download/df01a3c7-c0fb-48f1-8eca-ce452ea4b8c2_en?filename=agri-market-brief-20-organic-farming-eu_en.pdf
Eurostat. (2022). Database. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database?node_code=org
Feng, F., Jia, N., & Lin, F. (2023). Quantifying the impact of Russia–Ukraine crisis on food security and trade pattern: Evidence from a structural general equilibrium trade model. China Agricultural Economic Review, 15(2), 241–258. https://doi.org/10.1108/CAER-07-2022-0156
Gaudaré, U., Pellerin, S., Benoit, M., Durand, G., Dumont, B., Barbieri, P., & Nesme, T. (2021). Comparing productivity and feed-use efficiency between organic and conventional livestock animals. Environmental Research Letters, 16(2), Article 024012. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd65e
Gerber, J.-F. (2020). Degrowth and critical agrarian studies. The Journal of Peasant Studies, 47(2), 235–264. https://doi.org/10.1080/03066150.2019.1695601
Global and United States Organic Soybean Market Report & Forecast 2022–2028. (2022). 360 Market Updates. https://www.360marketupdates.com/global-and-united-states-organic-soybean-market-20718418#utm_source=MWjohn
Huo, D. (2013). Cluster analysis of market potential in emerging markets: A dynamic research based on markov chain. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 4, 218–231. https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/vy2013i4p218-231.html
IFOAM Organics Europe. (2021). Organic in Europe: Prospects and developments for organic in National CAP strategic plans. https://www.organicseurope.bio/content/uploads/2021/06/ifoameu_advocacy_CAP_StrategicPlansAnd25Target_202106.pdf?dd
Karlsson, J. O., & Röös, E. (2019). Resource-efficient use of land and animals – Environmental impacts of food systems based on organic cropping and avoided food-feed competition. Land Use Policy, 85, 63–72. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.03.035
Karlsson, J. O., Parodi, A., van Zanten, H. H. E., & de Boer, I. J. M. (2021). Halting European Union soybean feed imports favours ruminants over pigs and poultry. Nature Food, 2(1), 38–46. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-020-00203-7
Kemmerling, B., Schetter, C., & Wirkus, L. (2022). The logics of war and food (in)security. Global Food Security, 33, Article 100634. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2022.100634
Kozielec, A., Piecuch, J., Daniek, K., & Luty, L. (2024). Challenges to food security in the Middle East and North Africa in the context of the Russia–Ukraine Conflict. Agriculture, 14(1), Article 155. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture14010155
Kurdyś-Kujawska, A., Sompolska-Rzechuła, A., Pawłowska-Tyszko, J., & Soliwoda, M. (2021). Crop insurance, land productivity and the environment: A way forward to a better understanding. Agriculture, 11(11), Article 1108. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11111108
Lampkin, N., Sanders., S (2022). Policy support for organic farming in the European Union 2010–2020 (Thünen Working Paper No 200). Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, Braunschweig. https://doi.org/10.3220/WP1663067402000
Li, P., Peng, H., Zeng, Y., & Wu, H. (2022). China’s export trade potential of agricultural products with advantages facing the Belt and Road: Empirical study of edible mushroom trade. Transformations in Business & Economics, 21(2B), 816–833.
Lin, F., Li, X., Jia, N., Feng, F., Huang, H., Huang, J., Fan, S., Ciais, P., & Song, X.-P. (2023). The impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on global food security. Global Food Security, 36, Article 100661. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2022.100661
Lipsey, M., & Wilson, D. (2009). Practical meta-analysis. SAGE Publications.
Marja, R., Herzon, I., Viik, E., Elts, J., Mänd, M., Tscharntke, T., & Batáry, P. (2014). Environmentally friendly management as an intermediate strategy between organic and conventional agriculture to support biodiversity. Biological Conservation, 178, 146–154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2014.08.005
Mondelaers, K., Aertsens, J., & Van Huylenbroeck, G. (2009). A meta‐analysis of the differences in environmental impacts between organic and conventional farming. British Food Journal, 111(10), 1098–1119. https://doi.org/10.1108/00070700910992925
Muller, A., Schader, C., El-Hage Scialabba, N., Brüggemann, J., Isensee, A., Erb, K.-H., Smith, P., Klocke, P., Leiber, F., Stolze, M., & Niggli, U. (2017). Strategies for feeding the world more sustainably with organic agriculture. Nature Communications, 8(1), Article 1290. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01410-w
Nifatova, O., & Danko, Y. (2024). Small farms in Spain common agricultural policy (2023-2027): A critical review. Ekonomika APK, 31(4), 44–54. https://doi.org/10.32317/ekon.apk/4.2024.44
Notz, C., Maeschli, A., Walkenhorst, M., Staehli, P., & Ivemeyer, S. (2013). Feed no food – Influence of minimized concentrate feeding on animal health, fertility and performance of Swiss organic dairy cows. Tierärztliche Umschau, 68(8), 307–310.
Pankova, S. V., Tsypin, A. P., & Popov, V. V. (2017). Methodological basis of statistical research on Russia’s food security. Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism, 8(1), 105–115. https://doi.org/10.14505//jemt.v8.1(17).11
Pawlewicz, A., Brodzinska, K., Zvirbule, A., & Popluga, D. (2020). Trends in the development of organic farming in Poland and Latvia compared to the EU. Rural Sustainability Research, 43(338), 1–8. https://doi.org/10.2478/plua-2020-0001
Pietrzak, P. (2024). Poland, a benign but not a naïve power in its response to Russia’s war in Ukraine (2022-present): Assertive pursuit of enlightened self-interest – Forging new alliances and strengthening existing ones. In Dealing with regional conflicts of global importance (pp. 124–160). IGI Global. https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-6684-9467-7.ch007
Research Institute of Organic Agriculture FiBL. (2022). The world of organic agriculture – Statistics and emerging trends 2022. https://www.fibl.org/en/info-centre/news/the-world-of-organic-agriculture-statistics-and-emerging-trends-2022-online
Robu, R. G., Alexoaei, A. P., Cojanu, V., & Miron, D. (2024). The cereal network: A baseline approach to current configurations of trade communities. Agricultural and Food Economics, 12(1), Article 24. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40100-024-00316-8
Saka, U. M., Duzgun, S., & Bazilian, M. D. (2024). Analysis of world trade data with machine learning to enhance policies of mineral supply chain transparency. Resources Policy, 89, Article 104671. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.104671
Smoliі, L., & Mostoviak, M. (2024). Ukraine in the markets of organic agri-food products of the European Union: Analytics, trends, and prospects. Ekonomika APK, 31(1), 54–63. https://doi.org/10.32317/2221-1055.202401054
Smutka, L., & Abrhám, J. (2022). The impact of the Russian import ban on EU agrarian exports. Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská Ekonomika), 68(2), 39–49. https://doi.org/10.17221/351/2021-AGRICECON
Statista. (2024). Organic retail sales value in the European Union and Europe from 2004 to 2022. https://www.statista.com/statistics/541536/organic-retail-sales-value-european-union-europe-statistic/
Sumberg, J., & Giller, K. E. (2022). What is ‘conventional’ agriculture? Global Food Security, 32, Article 100617. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2022.100617
Szajner, P., Szczepaniak, I., & Łopaciuk, W. (2024). An assessment of the production potential and food self-sufficiency of Ukraine against the background of the European Union and Poland. Sustainability, 16(17), Article 7735. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16177735
Tuomisto, H. L., Hodge, I. D., Riordan, P., & Macdonald, D. W. (2012). Does organic farming reduce environmental impacts? – A meta-analysis of European research. Journal of Environmental Management, 112, 309–320. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.08.018
Wrzaszcz, W. (2023). Tendencies and perspectives of organic farming development in the EU – The significance of European green deal strategy. European Journal of Sustainable Development, 12(1), Article 143. https://doi.org/10.14207/ejsd.2023.v12n1p143
Badgley, C., Moghtader, J., Quintero, E., Zakem, E., Chappell, M. J., Aviles-Vazquez, K., Samulon, A., & Perfecto, I. (2007). Organic agriculture and the global food supply. Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems, 22(2), 86–108. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1742170507001640
Bernstein, H. (2010). Introduction: Some questions concerning the productive forces. Journal of Agrarian Change, 10(3), 300–314. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1471-0366.2010.00272.x
Boix-Fayos, C., & De Vente, J. (2023). Challenges and potential pathways towards sustainable agriculture within the European Green Deal. Agricultural Systems, 207, Article 103634. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2023.103634
Braun, E., Braun, E., Gyimesi, A., Iloskics, Z., & Sebestyén, T. (2023). Exposure to trade disruptions in case of the Russia–Ukraine conflict: A product network approach. The World Economy, 46(10), 2950–2982. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13417
Calabro, G., & Vieri, S. (2023). Limits and potential of organic farming towards a more sustainable European agri-food system. British Food Journal, 126(1), 223–236. https://doi.org/10.1108/BFJ-12-2022-1067
Chander, M., Subrahmanyeswari, B., Mukherjee, R., & Kumar, S. (2011). Organic livestock production: An emerging opportunity with new challenges for producers in tropical countries. Scientific and Technical Review, 30(3), 569–583. https://doi.org/10.20506/rst.30.3.2092
Connor, D. J. (2008). Organic agriculture cannot feed the world. Field Crops Research, 106(2), 187–190. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2007.11.010
Dankevych, V., Dankevych, Y., & Pyvovar, P. (2018). Сlustering of the international agricultural trade between Ukraine and the EU. Management Theory and Studies for Rural Business and Infrastructure Development, 40(3), 307–319.
de Gourcuff, J. C., Makowski, D., Ciais, P., & Barthelemy, M. (2023). Impact of the Ukrainian crisis on the global food security. arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2301.09968
European Commission. (2021). Ensuring global food supply and food security. https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/common-agricultural-policy/agri-food-supply-chain/ensuring-global-food-supply-and-food-security_en
European Commission. (2022a). Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets amidst global food security concerns. https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/news/european-commission-publishes-its-latest-short-term-outlook-eu-agricultural-markets-amidst-global-2022-07-07_en
European Commission. (2022b). EU imports of organic agri-food products: Key developments in 2021 (Agricultural Market Brief No 19). Agriculture and Rural Development. https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2022-09/agri-market-brief-19-organic-imports_en.pdf
European Commission. (2023). Organic farming in the EU: A decade of organic growth (Agricultural Market Brief No 20). Agriculture and Rural Development. https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/document/download/df01a3c7-c0fb-48f1-8eca-ce452ea4b8c2_en?filename=agri-market-brief-20-organic-farming-eu_en.pdf
Eurostat. (2022). Database. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database?node_code=org
Feng, F., Jia, N., & Lin, F. (2023). Quantifying the impact of Russia–Ukraine crisis on food security and trade pattern: Evidence from a structural general equilibrium trade model. China Agricultural Economic Review, 15(2), 241–258. https://doi.org/10.1108/CAER-07-2022-0156
Gaudaré, U., Pellerin, S., Benoit, M., Durand, G., Dumont, B., Barbieri, P., & Nesme, T. (2021). Comparing productivity and feed-use efficiency between organic and conventional livestock animals. Environmental Research Letters, 16(2), Article 024012. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd65e
Gerber, J.-F. (2020). Degrowth and critical agrarian studies. The Journal of Peasant Studies, 47(2), 235–264. https://doi.org/10.1080/03066150.2019.1695601
Global and United States Organic Soybean Market Report & Forecast 2022–2028. (2022). 360 Market Updates. https://www.360marketupdates.com/global-and-united-states-organic-soybean-market-20718418#utm_source=MWjohn
Huo, D. (2013). Cluster analysis of market potential in emerging markets: A dynamic research based on markov chain. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 4, 218–231. https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/vy2013i4p218-231.html
IFOAM Organics Europe. (2021). Organic in Europe: Prospects and developments for organic in National CAP strategic plans. https://www.organicseurope.bio/content/uploads/2021/06/ifoameu_advocacy_CAP_StrategicPlansAnd25Target_202106.pdf?dd
Karlsson, J. O., & Röös, E. (2019). Resource-efficient use of land and animals – Environmental impacts of food systems based on organic cropping and avoided food-feed competition. Land Use Policy, 85, 63–72. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.03.035
Karlsson, J. O., Parodi, A., van Zanten, H. H. E., & de Boer, I. J. M. (2021). Halting European Union soybean feed imports favours ruminants over pigs and poultry. Nature Food, 2(1), 38–46. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-020-00203-7
Kemmerling, B., Schetter, C., & Wirkus, L. (2022). The logics of war and food (in)security. Global Food Security, 33, Article 100634. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2022.100634
Kozielec, A., Piecuch, J., Daniek, K., & Luty, L. (2024). Challenges to food security in the Middle East and North Africa in the context of the Russia–Ukraine Conflict. Agriculture, 14(1), Article 155. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture14010155
Kurdyś-Kujawska, A., Sompolska-Rzechuła, A., Pawłowska-Tyszko, J., & Soliwoda, M. (2021). Crop insurance, land productivity and the environment: A way forward to a better understanding. Agriculture, 11(11), Article 1108. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11111108
Lampkin, N., Sanders., S (2022). Policy support for organic farming in the European Union 2010–2020 (Thünen Working Paper No 200). Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, Braunschweig. https://doi.org/10.3220/WP1663067402000
Li, P., Peng, H., Zeng, Y., & Wu, H. (2022). China’s export trade potential of agricultural products with advantages facing the Belt and Road: Empirical study of edible mushroom trade. Transformations in Business & Economics, 21(2B), 816–833.
Lin, F., Li, X., Jia, N., Feng, F., Huang, H., Huang, J., Fan, S., Ciais, P., & Song, X.-P. (2023). The impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on global food security. Global Food Security, 36, Article 100661. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2022.100661
Lipsey, M., & Wilson, D. (2009). Practical meta-analysis. SAGE Publications.
Marja, R., Herzon, I., Viik, E., Elts, J., Mänd, M., Tscharntke, T., & Batáry, P. (2014). Environmentally friendly management as an intermediate strategy between organic and conventional agriculture to support biodiversity. Biological Conservation, 178, 146–154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2014.08.005
Mondelaers, K., Aertsens, J., & Van Huylenbroeck, G. (2009). A meta‐analysis of the differences in environmental impacts between organic and conventional farming. British Food Journal, 111(10), 1098–1119. https://doi.org/10.1108/00070700910992925
Muller, A., Schader, C., El-Hage Scialabba, N., Brüggemann, J., Isensee, A., Erb, K.-H., Smith, P., Klocke, P., Leiber, F., Stolze, M., & Niggli, U. (2017). Strategies for feeding the world more sustainably with organic agriculture. Nature Communications, 8(1), Article 1290. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01410-w
Nifatova, O., & Danko, Y. (2024). Small farms in Spain common agricultural policy (2023-2027): A critical review. Ekonomika APK, 31(4), 44–54. https://doi.org/10.32317/ekon.apk/4.2024.44
Notz, C., Maeschli, A., Walkenhorst, M., Staehli, P., & Ivemeyer, S. (2013). Feed no food – Influence of minimized concentrate feeding on animal health, fertility and performance of Swiss organic dairy cows. Tierärztliche Umschau, 68(8), 307–310.
Pankova, S. V., Tsypin, A. P., & Popov, V. V. (2017). Methodological basis of statistical research on Russia’s food security. Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism, 8(1), 105–115. https://doi.org/10.14505//jemt.v8.1(17).11
Pawlewicz, A., Brodzinska, K., Zvirbule, A., & Popluga, D. (2020). Trends in the development of organic farming in Poland and Latvia compared to the EU. Rural Sustainability Research, 43(338), 1–8. https://doi.org/10.2478/plua-2020-0001
Pietrzak, P. (2024). Poland, a benign but not a naïve power in its response to Russia’s war in Ukraine (2022-present): Assertive pursuit of enlightened self-interest – Forging new alliances and strengthening existing ones. In Dealing with regional conflicts of global importance (pp. 124–160). IGI Global. https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-6684-9467-7.ch007
Research Institute of Organic Agriculture FiBL. (2022). The world of organic agriculture – Statistics and emerging trends 2022. https://www.fibl.org/en/info-centre/news/the-world-of-organic-agriculture-statistics-and-emerging-trends-2022-online
Robu, R. G., Alexoaei, A. P., Cojanu, V., & Miron, D. (2024). The cereal network: A baseline approach to current configurations of trade communities. Agricultural and Food Economics, 12(1), Article 24. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40100-024-00316-8
Saka, U. M., Duzgun, S., & Bazilian, M. D. (2024). Analysis of world trade data with machine learning to enhance policies of mineral supply chain transparency. Resources Policy, 89, Article 104671. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.104671
Smoliі, L., & Mostoviak, M. (2024). Ukraine in the markets of organic agri-food products of the European Union: Analytics, trends, and prospects. Ekonomika APK, 31(1), 54–63. https://doi.org/10.32317/2221-1055.202401054
Smutka, L., & Abrhám, J. (2022). The impact of the Russian import ban on EU agrarian exports. Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská Ekonomika), 68(2), 39–49. https://doi.org/10.17221/351/2021-AGRICECON
Statista. (2024). Organic retail sales value in the European Union and Europe from 2004 to 2022. https://www.statista.com/statistics/541536/organic-retail-sales-value-european-union-europe-statistic/
Sumberg, J., & Giller, K. E. (2022). What is ‘conventional’ agriculture? Global Food Security, 32, Article 100617. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2022.100617
Szajner, P., Szczepaniak, I., & Łopaciuk, W. (2024). An assessment of the production potential and food self-sufficiency of Ukraine against the background of the European Union and Poland. Sustainability, 16(17), Article 7735. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16177735
Tuomisto, H. L., Hodge, I. D., Riordan, P., & Macdonald, D. W. (2012). Does organic farming reduce environmental impacts? – A meta-analysis of European research. Journal of Environmental Management, 112, 309–320. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.08.018
Wrzaszcz, W. (2023). Tendencies and perspectives of organic farming development in the EU – The significance of European green deal strategy. European Journal of Sustainable Development, 12(1), Article 143. https://doi.org/10.14207/ejsd.2023.v12n1p143