Evaluation of natural gas strategies of Turkey in East Mediterranean region: a strengths-weaknesses-opportunities-threats and analytic network process approach
Abstract
Demand for natural gas has severely challenged the world supply among other types of energy sources such as coal, geothermal, nuclear and etc. Natural gas is the most important form of energy because it is clean, abundant, reliable and versatile. Due to the limited and transportable characterizes of natural gas, sharing pipelines for natural gas with other nations can either bring peace and stability or create chaos. To avoid insoluble strategies, it is very explicit to decide scientifically for these kinds of global issues. To do so, a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) – ANP (Analytic Network Process) integrated approach is presented to evaluate natural gas policies for Turkey in terms of East Mediterranean Region. In the first step, the appropriate strategies, SO (strengths-opportunities), ST (strengths-threats), WO (weaknesses-opportunities) and WT (weaknesses-threats) are determined via SWOT analysis including four criteria, 20 sub-criteria and seven strategies. Due to inability of SWOT analysis to prioritize the criteria and rank the strategies, ANP approach which also considers the dependency between criteria is applied in the second step. Finally, the proposed SWOT-ANP approach is compared with other multi criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques to represent the effectiveness and applicability of the model.
Keyword : natural gas, strategic policy, evaluation, ANP, SWOT
How to Cite
Genç, T., Kabak, M., Özceylan, E., & Çetinkaya, C. (2018). Evaluation of natural gas strategies of Turkey in East Mediterranean region: a strengths-weaknesses-opportunities-threats and analytic network process approach. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 24(3), 1041-1062. https://doi.org/10.3846/20294913.2016.1253043
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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Chang, H. H.; Huang, W. C. 2006. Application of a quantification SWOT analytical method, Mathematical and Computer Modelling 43(1–2): 158–169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mcm.2005.08.016
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Gavade, R. K. 2014. Multi-criteria decision making: an overview of different selection problems and methods, International Journal of Computer Science and Information Technologies 5(4): 5643–5646.
Groselj, P.; Stirn, L. Z. 2015. The environmental management problem of Pohorje, Slovenia: a new group approach within ANP-SWOT framework, Journal of Environmental Management 161: 106–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.06.038
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Kajanus, M.; Kangas, J.; Kurttila, M. 2004. The use of value focused thinking and the A’WOT hybrid method in tourism management, Tourism Management 25(4): 499–506. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5177(03)00120-1
Kangas, J.; Kurtila, M.; Kajanus, M.; Kangas, A. 2003. Evaluating the management strategies of a forestland estate-the S-O-S approach, Journal of Environmental Management 69(4): 349–358. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2003.09.010
Karppi, I.; Kokkononen, M.; Lähteenmäki-Smith, K. 2001. SWOT analysis as a basis for regional strategies. Nordregio Working Paper. Stockholm: Nordregio.
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Lee, Y. H. 2015. Navigating SWOT-FANP with GSM method to prioritize the strategic location, Technological and Economic Development of Economy 21(1): 140–163. https://doi.org/10.3846/20294913.2015.1004566
Lu, W. S. 2010. An improved SWOT approach for conducting strategic planning in the construction industry, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 136(12): 1317–1328. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000240
OME. 2011. A Mediterranean energy outlook [online], [cited 16 May 2016]. Observatoire Méditerranéen de l’Energie. Available from Internet: http://www.kyotoclub.org/docs/rimini111111_Key-Energy_Vigotti.pdf
Reinsberger, K.; Brudermann, T.; Posch, A. 2015. The role of photovoltaics in energy transition – as-sessing the prospects for a regime shift, GAIA – Ecological Perspectives for Science and Society 24(1): 41–47.
Saaty, T. L. 1980. The analytic hierarchy process. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.
Saaty, T. L. 1994. How to make a decision: the analytic hierarchy process, Interfaces 24(6): 19–43. https://doi.org/10.1287/inte.24.6.19
Saaty, T. L. 2005. Theory and applications of the analytic network process. Pittsburgh, RWS Publications.
Saaty, T. L.; Özdemir, M. S. 2005. The encyclion: a dictionary of decisions with dependence and feedback based on the analytic network process. New York, NY: RWS Publications.
Saaty, T. L.; Vargas, L. G. 2006. Decision making with the analytic network process: economic, political, social and technological applications with benefits, opportunities, costs and risks. New York, NY: Springer.
Saaty, T. L.; Vargas, L. G. 1998. Diagnosis with dependent symptoms: Bayes theorem and the analytic hierarchy process, Operations Research 46(4): 491–502. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.46.4.491
Sevkli, M.; Oztekin, A.; Uysal, O.; Torlak, G.; Turkyilmaz, A.; Delen, D. 2012. Development of a fuzzy ANP based SWOT analysis for the airline industry in Turkey, Expert Systems with Applications 39(1): 14–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2011.06.047
Shaffer, B. 2012. Energy resources and markets in the Eastern Mediterranean Region [online], [cited 16 May 2016]. Eastern Mediterranean Energy Project Policy Brief. Available from Internet: http://www.gmfus.org/archives/energy-resources-and-marketsin-the-eastern mediterranean-region
Shahabi, R. S.; Basiri, M. H.; Kahag, M. R.; Zonouzi, S. A. 2014. An ANP–SWOT approach for interdependency analysis and prioritizing the Iran’s steel scrap industry strategies, Resources Policy 42: 18–26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2014.07.001
Tavana, M.; Pirdashti, M.; Kennedy, D. T.; Belaud, J. P.; Behzadian, M. 2012. A hybrid Delphi-SWOT paradigm for oil and gas pipeline strategic planning in Caspian Sea basin, Energy Policy 40: 345–360. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.10.020
Tavana, M.; Pirdashti, M.; Kennedy, D. T.; Belaud, J. P.; Behzadian, M. 2013. A PROMETHEE-GDSS for oil and gas pipeline planning in the Caspian Sea basin, Energy Economics 36: 716–728. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2012.11.023
Vanek, M.; Mikolas, M.; Zvakova, K. 2012. Evaluation methods of SWOT analysis, GeoScience Engineering 58(2): 23–31. https://doi.org/10.2478/gse-2014-0036
Weihrich, H. 1982. The TOWS matrix: a tool for situational analysis, Long Range Planning 15(2): 54–66. https://doi.org/10.1016/0024-6301(82)90120-0
WEO. 2014. World energy outlook 2014 report [online], [cited 16 May 2016]. International Energy Agency. Available from Internet: https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO_2014_ES_English_WEB.pdf
Wheelen, T. L.; Hunger, J. D. 1995. Strategic management and business policy. 5th ed. New Jersey, NJ: Prentice Hall Press.
Yüksel, İ.; Dağdeviren, M. 2007. Using the analytic network process (ANP) in a SWOT analysis – a case study for a textile firm, Information Sciences 177(16): 3364–3382. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2007.01.001
Zheng, L.; Liu, H. 2013. Evaluating multifunctional agriculture in Dalishu, China: a combined application of SWOT analysis and the analytic network process method, Outlook on Agriculture 42(2): 103–108. https://doi.org/10.5367/oa.2013.0128
Zhou, L.; Chen, Y. 2014. Exploring the potential of community-based grassland management in Yanchi County of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China: an application of the SWOT-AHP method, Environmental Earth Sciences 72(6): 1811–1820. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-014-3090-3
AEO. 2013. Annual energy outlook 2013 with projections to 2040 [online], [cited 16 May 2016]. U.S. Energy Information Administration. Available from Internet: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2013).pdf
Arabzad, S. M.; Ghorbani, M.; Razmi, J.; Shirouyehzad, H. 2015. Employing fuzzy TOPSIS and SWOT for supplier selection and order allocation problem, The International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology 76: 803–818. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00170-014-6288-3
Aruldoss, M.; Lakshmi, M.; Venkatesan, V. P. 2013. A survey on multi criteria decision making methods and its applications, American Journal of Information Systems 1(1): 31–43.
Azimi, R.; Chamzini, A. Y.; Fooladgar, M. M.; Basiri, M. H. 2011b. Evaluating the strategies of the Iranian mining sector using an integrated model, International Journal of Management Science and Engineering Management 6(6): 459–466.
Azimi, R.; Chamzini, A. Y.; Fouladgar, M. M.; Zavadskas, E. K.; Basiri, M. H. 2011a. Ranking the strategies of mining sector through ANP and TOPSIS in a SSOT framework, Journal of Business Economics and Management 12(4): 670–689. https://doi.org/10.3846/16111699.2011.626552
Babaesmailli, M.; Arbabshirani, B.; Golmah, V. 2012. Integrating analytical network process and fuzzy logic to prioritize the strategies – a case study for tile manufacturing firm, Expert Systems with Applications 39: 925–935. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2011.07.090
Bas, E. 2013. The integrated framework for analysis of electricity supply chain using an integrated SWOT-fuzzy TOPSIS methodology combined with AHP: the case of Turkey, Electrical Power and Energy Systems 44: 897–907. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijepes.2012.08.045
Chaghooshi, A. J.; Fathi, M. R.; Omidian, A.; Zarchi, M. K. 2011. Integration of FPM, fuzzy AHP and ANP Methods in formulation of software industry strategy, Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences 5(9): 1232–1247.
Chang, H. H.; Huang, W. C. 2006. Application of a quantification SWOT analytical method, Mathematical and Computer Modelling 43(1–2): 158–169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mcm.2005.08.016
David, F. R. 2007. Strategic management concepts and cases. 11th ed. New York, NY: Prentice Hall Press.
ECA. 2015. Improving the security of energy supply by developing the internal energy market: more efforts needed [online], [cited 16 May 2016]. Available from Internet: http://www.eca.europa.eu/Lists/ECADocuments/SR15_16/SR_ENERGY_SECURITY-EN.pdf
Gavade, R. K. 2014. Multi-criteria decision making: an overview of different selection problems and methods, International Journal of Computer Science and Information Technologies 5(4): 5643–5646.
Groselj, P.; Stirn, L. Z. 2015. The environmental management problem of Pohorje, Slovenia: a new group approach within ANP-SWOT framework, Journal of Environmental Management 161: 106–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.06.038
Harrison, J. P. 2010. Essentials of strategic planning in healthcare. New York, NY: Health Administration Press.
Hashemi, N. F.; Mazdeh, M. M.; Razeghi, A.; Rahimian, A. 2011. Formulating and choosing strategies using SWOT analysis and QSPM Matrix: a case study of Hamadan Glass Company, in 41st International Conference on Computers & Industrial Engineering, 23–26 October 2011, Los Angeles, U.S.
Houben, G.; Lenie, K.; Vanhoof, K. 1999. A knowledge-based SWOT-analysis system as an instrument for strategic planning in small and medium sized enterprises, Decision Support Systems 26(2): 125–135. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-9236(99)00024-X
Jeyaraj, K. L.; Muralidharan, C.; Senthilvelan, T.; Deshmukh, S. G. 2012. Application of SWOT and principal component analysis in a Textile Company – a case study, International Journal of Engineering Research and Development 1(9): 46–54.
Kajanus, M.; Kangas, J.; Kurttila, M. 2004. The use of value focused thinking and the A’WOT hybrid method in tourism management, Tourism Management 25(4): 499–506. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5177(03)00120-1
Kangas, J.; Kurtila, M.; Kajanus, M.; Kangas, A. 2003. Evaluating the management strategies of a forestland estate-the S-O-S approach, Journal of Environmental Management 69(4): 349–358. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2003.09.010
Karppi, I.; Kokkononen, M.; Lähteenmäki-Smith, K. 2001. SWOT analysis as a basis for regional strategies. Nordregio Working Paper. Stockholm: Nordregio.
Koehler, M. 2012. Gas discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean: implications for the European Union [online], [cited 16 May 2016]. Eastern Mediterranean Energy Project Policy Brief. Available from Internet: http://www.gmfus.org/publications/gas-discoveries-eastern-mediterranean-implications-european-union
Lee, Y. H. 2015. Navigating SWOT-FANP with GSM method to prioritize the strategic location, Technological and Economic Development of Economy 21(1): 140–163. https://doi.org/10.3846/20294913.2015.1004566
Lu, W. S. 2010. An improved SWOT approach for conducting strategic planning in the construction industry, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 136(12): 1317–1328. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000240
OME. 2011. A Mediterranean energy outlook [online], [cited 16 May 2016]. Observatoire Méditerranéen de l’Energie. Available from Internet: http://www.kyotoclub.org/docs/rimini111111_Key-Energy_Vigotti.pdf
Reinsberger, K.; Brudermann, T.; Posch, A. 2015. The role of photovoltaics in energy transition – as-sessing the prospects for a regime shift, GAIA – Ecological Perspectives for Science and Society 24(1): 41–47.
Saaty, T. L. 1980. The analytic hierarchy process. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.
Saaty, T. L. 1994. How to make a decision: the analytic hierarchy process, Interfaces 24(6): 19–43. https://doi.org/10.1287/inte.24.6.19
Saaty, T. L. 2005. Theory and applications of the analytic network process. Pittsburgh, RWS Publications.
Saaty, T. L.; Özdemir, M. S. 2005. The encyclion: a dictionary of decisions with dependence and feedback based on the analytic network process. New York, NY: RWS Publications.
Saaty, T. L.; Vargas, L. G. 2006. Decision making with the analytic network process: economic, political, social and technological applications with benefits, opportunities, costs and risks. New York, NY: Springer.
Saaty, T. L.; Vargas, L. G. 1998. Diagnosis with dependent symptoms: Bayes theorem and the analytic hierarchy process, Operations Research 46(4): 491–502. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.46.4.491
Sevkli, M.; Oztekin, A.; Uysal, O.; Torlak, G.; Turkyilmaz, A.; Delen, D. 2012. Development of a fuzzy ANP based SWOT analysis for the airline industry in Turkey, Expert Systems with Applications 39(1): 14–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2011.06.047
Shaffer, B. 2012. Energy resources and markets in the Eastern Mediterranean Region [online], [cited 16 May 2016]. Eastern Mediterranean Energy Project Policy Brief. Available from Internet: http://www.gmfus.org/archives/energy-resources-and-marketsin-the-eastern mediterranean-region
Shahabi, R. S.; Basiri, M. H.; Kahag, M. R.; Zonouzi, S. A. 2014. An ANP–SWOT approach for interdependency analysis and prioritizing the Iran’s steel scrap industry strategies, Resources Policy 42: 18–26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2014.07.001
Tavana, M.; Pirdashti, M.; Kennedy, D. T.; Belaud, J. P.; Behzadian, M. 2012. A hybrid Delphi-SWOT paradigm for oil and gas pipeline strategic planning in Caspian Sea basin, Energy Policy 40: 345–360. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.10.020
Tavana, M.; Pirdashti, M.; Kennedy, D. T.; Belaud, J. P.; Behzadian, M. 2013. A PROMETHEE-GDSS for oil and gas pipeline planning in the Caspian Sea basin, Energy Economics 36: 716–728. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2012.11.023
Vanek, M.; Mikolas, M.; Zvakova, K. 2012. Evaluation methods of SWOT analysis, GeoScience Engineering 58(2): 23–31. https://doi.org/10.2478/gse-2014-0036
Weihrich, H. 1982. The TOWS matrix: a tool for situational analysis, Long Range Planning 15(2): 54–66. https://doi.org/10.1016/0024-6301(82)90120-0
WEO. 2014. World energy outlook 2014 report [online], [cited 16 May 2016]. International Energy Agency. Available from Internet: https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO_2014_ES_English_WEB.pdf
Wheelen, T. L.; Hunger, J. D. 1995. Strategic management and business policy. 5th ed. New Jersey, NJ: Prentice Hall Press.
Yüksel, İ.; Dağdeviren, M. 2007. Using the analytic network process (ANP) in a SWOT analysis – a case study for a textile firm, Information Sciences 177(16): 3364–3382. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2007.01.001
Zheng, L.; Liu, H. 2013. Evaluating multifunctional agriculture in Dalishu, China: a combined application of SWOT analysis and the analytic network process method, Outlook on Agriculture 42(2): 103–108. https://doi.org/10.5367/oa.2013.0128
Zhou, L.; Chen, Y. 2014. Exploring the potential of community-based grassland management in Yanchi County of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China: an application of the SWOT-AHP method, Environmental Earth Sciences 72(6): 1811–1820. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-014-3090-3