Causality between energy consumption and economic growth in the V4 countries
Abstract
Energy plays an important role in economic development. This paper deals with the long-run relationship between energy consumption and real GDP for V4 countries from 2005 to 2019. The analysis was based on the unit root tests, co-integration tests, and causality tests. There are two questions. The first question is if energy consumption the stimulus to GDP, resp. energy consumption causes GDP. And the second question is if GDP the stimulus for energy consumption, resp. GDP causes consumption of energy. Energy consumption has an essential role in the economy on both the demand and the supply. It means that there should be a causal relationship from energy consumption to GDP as well as vice versa. Given that in the long run the energy consumption Granger causes the GDP in Slovakia, Hungary, and the Czech Republic, it means that energy consumption could cause economic growth in these countries. The only country where no significant relationship between energy consumption and the GDP has been demonstrated in Poland.
Keyword : ADF test, causality, energy, GDP, VECM, Visegrad Group
How to Cite
Krkošková, R. (2021). Causality between energy consumption and economic growth in the V4 countries . Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 27(4), 900-920. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2021.14863
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251–276. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236
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Fisal, Tursoy, T., & Resatoglu, N. G. (2016). Energy consumption, electricity, and GDP causality; The case of Russia, 1990–2011. Procedia Economics and Finance, 39, 653–659. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(16)30312-4
Furuoka, F. (2017). Renewable electricity consumption and economic development: New findings from the Baltic countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 71, 450–463. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.12.074
Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424–438. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1912791?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents
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Hendry, D., & Juselius, K. (2000). Explaining cointegration analysis: Part I. The Energy Journal, 21(1), 1–42. https://doi.org/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol21-No1-1
Hendry, D., & Juselius, K. (2001). Explaining cointegration analysis: Part II. The Energy Journal, 22(1), 75–120. https://doi.org/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol22-No1-4
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International Energy Agency. (2018d). Key recommendations. https://www.iea.org/countries/hungary
Koç, Y., A. & Bahtiyar, B. (2017). The relationship between energy consumption, economic growth, inflation and trade openness: An analysis for Fragile five countries. International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147–4478), 6(6), 21–41. https://doi.org/10.20525/ijrbs.v6i6.785
Koçak, E., & Şarkgüneşi, A. (2017). The renewable energy and economic growth nexus in Black Sea and Balkan countries. Energy Policy, 100, 51–57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.10.007
Kose, E., Burmaoglu, S., & Kabak, M. (2013). Grey relational analysis between energy consumption and economic growth. Grey Systems: Theory and Application, 3(3), 291–304. https://doi.org/10.1108/GS-06-2013-0010
Krkošková, R. (2020). Relationship between the brent oil price and the US dollar exchange rate. Prague Economic Papers, 29(2), 187–206. https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.718
Li, X., Zhou, D., & Zhang, H. (2019). Quantitative analysis of energy consumption and economic growth in China. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 237(4), 042016. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/237/4/042016
Maji, I. K., Sulaiman, C., & Abdul-Rahim, A. S. (2019). Renewable energy consumption and economic growth nexus: A fresh evidence from West Africa. Energy Reports, 5, 384–392. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2019.03.005
Mutascu, M. (2016). A bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis of energy consumption and economic growth in the G7 countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 63, 166–171. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.05.055
Nepal, R., & Paija, N. (2019). Energy security, electricity, population, and economic growth: A case of South Asian developing countries with rich economy resources. Energy Policy, 132, 771–781. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.05.054
Olopade, B. C., Okodua, H., Oladosun, M., Matthew, O., Urhie, E., Osabohien, R., Adediran, O., & Johnson, O. H. (2020). Economic growth, energy consumption and human capital formation: Implication for knowledge-based economy. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 10(1), 37–43. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.8165
Ozcan, B., & Ozturk, I. (2019). Renewable energy consumption-economic growth nexus in emerging countries: A bootstrap panel causality test. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 104, 30–37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2019.01.020
Ozcicek, O., & Agpak, F. (2017). The role of education on renewable energy use: Evidence from poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimations. Journal of Business and Economic Policy, 4(4), 49–61.
Ozturk, I., Adslan, A., & Kalyoncu, H. (2010). Energy consumption and economic growth relationship: Evidence from panel data for low and middle income countries. Energy Policy, 38(8), 4422–4428. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.03.071
Pampuri, L., Cereghetti, N., Strepparava, D., & Caputo, P. (2016). Analysis of the electricity consumptions: A first step to develop a district cooling system. Sustainable Cities and Society, 23, 23–36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2016.02.015
Pao, H., Li, Y., & Fu, H. C. (2014). Causality relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Brazil. Smart Grid and Renewable Energy, 5(8), 198–205. https://doi.org/10.4236/sgre.2014.58019
Pao, H. T., & Fu, H. C. (2013). Renewable energy, non-renewable energy and economic growth in Brazil. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 25, 381–392. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2013.05.004
Payne, J. E. (2010). A survey of the electricity consumption-growth literature. Applied Energy, 87(3), 723–731. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2009.06.034
Popescu, G. H., Andrei, J. V., Nica, E., Mieilă, M., & Panait, M. (2019). Analysis on the impact of investments, energy use and domestic material consumption in changing the Romanian economic paradigm. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 25(1), 59–81. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2019.7454
Rafindadi, A. A., & Ozturk, I. (2017). Impacts of renewable energy consumption on the German economic growth: Evidence from combined cointegration test. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 75, 1130–1141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.11.093
Rahman, M. M., & Velayutham, E. (2020). Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption-economic growth nexus: New evidence from South Asia. Renewable Energy, 147, 399–408. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.09.007
Saad, W., & Taleb, A. (2018). The causal relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from Europe. Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy, 20(1), 127–136. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-017-1463-5
Shahid, A. U., Rathore, M., Aslam, N., & Tariq, M. I. (2014). An empirical analysis of energy consumption and economic growth in Brazil. Journal of Economics and Development Studies, 2(2), 591–599.
Shin, J., Yang, H., & Kim, C. (2019). The relationship between climate and energy consumption: The case of South Korea. Energy Sources, Part A: Recovery, Utilization, and Environmental Effects. https://doi.org/10.1080/15567036.2019.1673853
Soava, G., Mehedintu, A., & Sterpu, M. (2020). Relations between income inequality, economic growth and poverty threshold: new evidences from EU countries panels. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 26(2), 290–310. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2019.11335
Soava, G., Mehedintu, A., Sterpu, M., & Raduteanu, M. (2018). Impact of renewable energy consumption on economic growth: Evidence from European Union countries. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 24(3), 914–932. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2018.1426
Szép, T. S. (2014). The Granger causality analysis of energy consumption and economic growth. Marketing and Management of Innovations, 1, 244–258. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/272149473_The_granger_causality_analysis_of_energy_consumption_and_economic_growth
Tang, C. F., & Ozturk, I. (2016). Energy consumption and economic growth in Vietnam. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 54, 1506–1514. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.10.083
Tugcu, C. T., Ozlturk, I., & Aslain, A. (2012). Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and economic growth revisited: Evidence from G7 countries. Energy Economics, 34(6), 1942–1950. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2012.08.021
Visegrad Declaration. (1991). The Visegrad Group: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. http://www.visegradgroup.eu/main.php?folderID=940&articleID=3940&ctag=articlelist&iid=1
Wada, I. (2017). Energy production and economic growth in Saudi Arabia: Dynamic causality. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning and Policy, 12(6), 584–590. https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2016.1248872
Wiranata, D. B., & Muqorrobin, M. (2013). The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. Trikonomika, 12(2), 103–112. https://doi.org/10.23969/trikonomika.v12i2.470
Yildirim, E., Sarac, S., & Aslan, A. (2012). Energy consumption and economic growth in the USA: Evidence from renewable energy. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Review, 16(9), 6770–6774. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2012.09.004
Zafar, M. W., Shahbaz, M., Hou, F., & Sinha, A. (2019). From nonrenewable to renewable energy and its impact on economic growth: The role of research & development expenditures in Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation countries. Journal of Cleaner Production, 212, 1166–1178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.12.081