Tourism – economic growth nexus. The case of Romania
Abstract
The development of tourism is usually associated, in positive terms, with economic development, foreign currency inflows, employment opportunities, infrastructure improvements, sustainable development and poverty alleviation. However, the nature of the tourism-growth relationship is still a matter of academic debate, and, perhaps, an expression of the inconsistencies and contradictions of public policies designed to support this industry. Researchers and practitioners have not yet come to an agreement on a number of fundamental questions: does tourism stimulate economic growth or the converse, and whether the causality, if it does exist, is uni or bidirectional, is constant or can change its direction in the medium - or long run. The present paper investigates the relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and international tourism in Romania, over the 1995–2016 period. Our results show that the causal effect of the GDP on the international tourist arrivals and on the international tourism receipts is significant in the long run in Romania. In the short-run, we find a unidirectional causal relationship from the international tourism receipts to GDP, and a bidirectional causal relationship between GDP and the number of international tourist arrivals.
First published online 8 May 2020
Keyword : international tourism, economic growth, TLGH, GTLH Romania, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality
How to Cite
Badulescu, A., Badulescu, D., Simut, R., & Dzitac, S. (2020). Tourism – economic growth nexus. The case of Romania. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 26(4), 867-884. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2020.12532
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
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Cárdenas-García, P., Sánchez-Rivero, M., & Pulido-Fernández, J. (2015). Does tourism growth influence economic development?. Journal of Travel Research, 54(2), 206–221. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287513514297
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Demiroz, D., & Ongan, S. (2005). The contribution of tourism to the long-run Turkish Economic Growth. Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics), 53(9), 880–894.
Dickey, D., & Fuller, W. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427–431. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348
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Dritsakis, N. (2004). Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: An empirical investigation for Greece using causality analysis. Tourism Economics, 10(3), 305–316. https://doi.org/10.5367/0000000041895094
Durbarry, R. (2004). Tourism and economic growth: The case of Mauritius. Tourism Economics, 10(4), 389–401. https://doi.org/10.5367/0000000042430962
Eeckels, B. (2012). Tourism income and economic growth in Greece: empirical evidence from their cyclical components. Tourism Economics, 18(4), 817–834. https://doi.org/10.5367/te.2012.0148
Enders, W. (2014). Applied econometric time series (4 ed.). Wiley.
Engle, R., &, Granger, C. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251–276. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236
Fahimi, A., Akadiri, S., Seraj, M., & Akadiri, A. (2018). Testing the role of tourism and human capital development in economic growth. A panel causality study of micro states. Tourism Management Perspectives, 28, 62–70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2018.08.004
Granger, C. (1981). Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification. Journal of Econometrics, 16, 121–130. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(81)90079-8
Greene, W. H. (2011). Econométrie (7 ed.). Pearson Education France.
Gwenhure, Y., & Odhiambo, N. (2017). Tourism and economic growth: A review of international literature. Tourism: An International Interdisciplinary Journal, 65(1), 33–44.
Hye, Q., & Khan, R. (2013). Tourism-led Growth hypothesis: a case study of Pakistan. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 18(4), 303–313. https://doi.org/10.1080/10941665.2012.658412
Jalil, A., Mahmood, T., & Idrees, M. (2013). Tourism–Growth nexus in Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL bounds tests. Economic Modelling, 35(C), 185–191. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.06.034
Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegrating vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231–254. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(88)90041-3
Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in gaussian vector autoregressive models. Econometrica, 59(6), 1551–1580. https://doi.org/10.2307/2938278
Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration – with application to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169–210. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1990.mp52002003.x
Kasimati, E. (2011). Economic impact of tourism on Greece’s economy: Cointegration and causality analysis. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 79, 79–85.
Katircioglu, S. (2009a). Tourism, trade and growth: The case of Cyprus. Applied Economics, 41(21), 2741–2750. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840701335512
Katircioglu, S. (2009b). Revising the tourism-led-growth hypothesis for Turkey using the bounds test and Johansen approach for cointegration. Tourism Management, 30(1), 17–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2008.04.004
Kibara, O., Odhiambo, N., & Njuguna, J. (2012). Tourism and economic growth in Kenya: An empirical investigation. International Business & Economics Research Journal (IBER), 11(5), 517–528. https://doi.org/10.19030/iber.v11i5.6970
Kim, H., Chen, M., & Jang, S. (2006). Tourism expansion and economic development: The case of Taiwan. Tourism Management, 27(5), 925–933. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2005.05.011
Lanza, A., & Pigliaru, F. (2000). Why are tourism countries small and fast-growing?. In A. Fossati & G. Panella, (Eds.), Tourism and sustainable economic development (pp. 57–69). Kluwer Academic Publishers. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-4321-3_3
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Martins, L., Gan, Y., & Ferreira-Lopes, A. (2017). An empirical analysis of the influence of macroeconomic determinants on world tourism demand. Tourism Management, 61, 248–260. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2017.01.008
Mathieson, A., & Wall, G. (1982). Tourism: Economic, physical, and social impacts. Longman.
Mazilu, M., Dumitrescu, D., Marinescu, R., & Baltălungă, A. (2018). New trends in Romanian tourism in 2018. Journal of Tourism & Hospitality, 7(4), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.4172/2167-0269.1000372
Mester, I., Badulescu, D., Badulescu, A., Bac, D .P., Simut, R., & Sehleanu, M. (2016). Attitudes and practices concerning sustainability. A research case on Romanian tourism ventures. Journal of Environmental Protection and Ecology, 17(2), 687–695.
Mishra, P., Rout, H., & Mohapatra, S. (2011). Causality between tourism and economic growth: Empirical evidence from India. European Journal of Social Sciences, 18(4), 518–527. https://doi.org/10.1353/jda.2017.0037
Oh, C. O. (2005). The contribution of tourism development to economic growth in the Korean economy. Tourism Management, 26(1), 39–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2003.09.014
Ozturk, I., & Acaravci, A. (2009). On the causality between tourism growth and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Turkey. Transylvanian Review of Administrative Sciences, 25(E), 73–81.
Payne, J., & Mervar, A. (2010). Research note: The tourism–growth nexus in Croatia. Tourism Economics, 16(4), 1089–1094. https://doi.org/10.5367/te.2010.0014
Postelnicu, C., & Dabija, D. C. (2018). Romanian tourism: Past, Present and future in the context of globalization. Ecoforum, 7(1(14)).
Rivera, M. A. (2017). The synergies between human development, economic growth, and tourism within a developing country: An empirical model for Ecuador. Journal of Destination Marketing & Management, 6(3), 221–232. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdmm.2016.04.002
Sanchez Carrera, E., Risso, W., & Brida, J. (2008). Tourism’s Impact on long-run Mexican economic growth. Economics Bulletin, 3(21), 1–8. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1076225
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