International Journal of Strategic Property Management

Does China’s housing supply-demand relationship impact urban innovation capability

Juanfeng Zhang, Ning Hao, Guochao Zhao, Lele Li, Xiaoyi Xiang, Rui Han — Tue, 18 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Unlike existing literature that explores the impact of house prices on urban innovation, this paper skillfully examines the relationship between the housing market and urban innovation from the perspective of the housing supply-demand (S-D) relationship. Utilizing panel data from 284 prefecture-level cities in China spanning from 2005 to 2020, this study investigates the respective impacts of housing supply, housing demand, and their interplay on urban innovation capacity (UIC). Our findings indicate that housing supply positively influences UIC, with a coefficient of 0.060; specifically, for every 1% increase in housing supply, UIC increases by 0.06%. Similarly, housing demand also significantly affects UIC, with a coefficient of 0.060, suggesting that a 1% increase in housing demand corresponds to a 0.060% rise in UIC. However, we observe a significant negative effect of the housing S-D relationship on UIC, with a coefficient of –0.049, indicating that an increase in the housing S-D ratio detrimentally impacts urban innovation. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that as the housing supply-demand ratio rises, house prices also tend to increase. Additionally, we identify heterogeneity in our results, indicating variations in the housing supply-demand ratio’s impact on the innovation capacity of cities across different regions.

Supply decision of existing apartment: Case study of apartment transactions in Gangdong district, Seoul, Korea

Seongwon Lee, Seungwoo Shin, Yeonjae Lee — Wed, 26 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0200

Despite its importance, homeowners’ supply type decision has been under-researched due to data limitations. We construct a dataset of 4,037 apartment units in Gangdong district, Seoul, Korea over a 46-quarter period (2011Q1–2022Q2). We simultaneously analyse both the asset and space markets. The results show that the estimated probability and estimated volume of sale from supply type choice models are statistically significant in both the sales and rental price models. The key findings of our study are two. We find that the housing sales and rental markets interact and co-move together. We also demonstrate that the institution of the two-year lease contract period influences the transaction probabilities in both the sales and rental markets. For the supply type decision model, the estimated sale-transaction (rental-transaction) price significantly impacts the sale-transaction (rental-transaction) volume. However, no significant relationship was found between the estimated sale price and rental-transaction volume, nor between the estimated rental price and sale-transaction volume. The results of the forecast-performance comparison show that the integrated supply model_T/probability (calibrated) is the best for sales volume, whereas the two-year lagged value is the best for rental-volume estimation. This demonstrates institutional effects in the rental-housing market in Korea.